As you know, we are retired. As individuals, and as a group. We gave up the partisan side of things, since it doesn’t appear there is much we can contribute to the discussion. We were participants in some of the previous surprises, so we retain an interest apart from passion. Those operations were only relevant in this month- October- every other year. That is when the Congress is up for reelection. Other surprises just come as “surprises” on somebody else’s calendar.

This year, we normally scan the headlines to see if the “surprise” has shown up yet. If you are still waiting for the new exciting and disturbing news that could change your vote, it might not have arrived yet. A decent surprise needs a little time to unfold before it becomes stale, so timing is a factor. We looked at the calendar to see how many days remain before “election day.”

We had to do the rhyme to check and see if this October has 30 or 31 days in it. There was some uncertainty- not a surprise, mind you- but it looks like just a shade over two weeks to go. It is surprising that there isn’t a big surprise yet. This morning, Splash and Buck got into a vigorous discussion about what might be surprising, even if it took a month or two to get organized. Splash saw a blurb this morning about what appeared to be a recent and dramatic deployment of the American 101st Airborne Division to Romania.

It was a little surprising, having US combat troops- and good ones- adjacent to the continuing conflict in Ukraine. This morning’s surprise lasted only until Buck applied some critical thinking. “Elements of the 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault) began arriving in Romania back in June. The Headquarters elements and the 2nd Brigade Combat Team were sent to support the U.S. Army V Corps’ mission to reinforce NATO’s eastern flank to reassure allies and deter further Russian aggression.”

A June deployment hardly constitutes an October surprise, right? Buck rose and assumed a professorial position near the edge of the Fire Ring closest to the steps up to the Bunk House.

He began slowly. “The 101st Soldiers do not represent additional U.S. forces in Europe,” he said. “They are taking the place of a similar HQ and Brigade Combat Team from the 82nd Airborne Division. Plus, they are talking about it this Sunday morning like it hasn’t been discussed in the 70-odd days since they have been there.”

“So, why is this a surprise this morning?”

“It isn’t. The continuing possibility is that Mr. Putin could invade from the nation immediately to the north of the combat zone. Belarus could be the surprise this October.”

“So, the deployment of the 101st Airborne two months ago to Romania was supposed to surprise Russia this week? Wasn’t Romania a component of the Soviet Warsaw Pact in the old days?”

“That is what was surprising about the post-Cold War changes. Current NATO membership consists of 30 countries, but there were only a dozen founding members that faced the USSR. Four others joined during the long conflict, and 14 more after the Berlin Wall came down. All were either formerly part of the Warsaw Pact or the Soviet Union itself. You can understand why Mr. Putin might have thought there was NATO aggression going against Russia.”

“That is a real surprise. We obviously don’t see it that way. He might have been thinking Ukraine would be the next NATO member-country with Article 5 mutual defense provisions within his old borders.”

“That is a little surprising as background for the possibility of general war in Europe with Russian and American forces.”

“It is a surprising situation, but developments are seasonal. But for planning this coming week, does it fit on the same timeline for election surprises?”

There was some laughter about that, though it wasn’t universal.

Copyright 2022 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com