(Photo Daily Mail. Images of far lower quality than this were precious in building target packages)

Thursday is the day I am supposed to know the most about what is going on, but with an emphasis on what the things are going to be like as outcomes of what we see today. On Thursdays in the past, there was a similar expectation, though it was normally about things that were suggested to be blown up, or an assessment of something we had done the day before.

It was an intricate process conducted by skilled people and their interpretation of pictures from all sorts of places, fused with all the other information streams to wage war, if necessary.

These days, not so dramatic. The meetings are held on Zoom, and people have stopped dressing up. My little part of the morning meeting today was fun, since what is going on makes me recall what it was like to be in situations that had those sorts of consequences. In the day, the job had an adrenaline factor that was palpable, being in the middle of complex and sometimes unpleasant policy decisions made by others. It was interesting until lately. There was a certain amount of flexibility if you knew the rules and who to talk to nicely.

Anyway, the cascade of events that are sweeping us has all the aspects of trouble building. It got a cursory treatment this morning, and I recounted some of them here yesterday. The most significant of it all was what is happening with China. Chinese and US activities in the South China Sea were featured. What’s more, the Trump Administration is reacting to the militarization of the shallow reefs and sand spits strewn across the waters by acting military. It could evolve into something else quickly.

There is much more to it, of course, and it has been going on for years. The penetration of American research institutions is distressingly common. The greatest portion of the effort is construction of the vast complex of global infrastructure projects that will channel commerce and power to China. They call it the “Belt and Road” initiative, and it is a pretty impressive undertaking.

Well, I caught my breath when it was all done and I could sprawl unmolested on the powered chair. I picked up my laptop from where it had fallen to the floor and the screen flashed a color picture of something huge. I punched the screen a couple times and found out what random image I had been looking at.

Of course it was China. There is a huge confrontation building in northeast Africa over the riparian rights to the Nile River. The issue goes back to colonial times, when the Ethiopians ad not yet formed a modern state. The answer to development for them would be selling the electricity a vast hydroelectric complex on the Nile, upstream from being the major source of drinking water to Egypt.

The issue made my head spin from Southeast Asia to Africa. The Ethiopians claim they are not anyone’s belt or robe, but my sense is that there is Chinese money flowing behind the claimed level of local participation in funding.

The article fascinated me. When I started in the business, the images of places surrounded by tall fences was a big deal- Top Secret and more. They were amazing then- light washed for distinction of things that would get you shot for taking. We dealt with a veteran corps of photo interpreters whose tradition lead back through WWII action. They knew their target areas through daily coverage. They knew how an industrial complex works to find key targets in them. In my case, I just wanted to know which submarines were at which piers. And if there was anything on the pier alongside to suggest where they had been or where they were going.

It was quite a remarkable relationship between the analysts, the collection managers and the P.I.s. It was a grand collision of history, estimates and emerging ground truth. But it was all conducted in concrete bunkers illuminated in fluorescent light and in black and white with a faint blue tinge.

(This is another of the Daily Mail’s images, taken before the dam was closed. The perspective is similar to the imagery we got from classified sources in perspective, but you can order it online now from the company that pays to orbit the satellites required.)

Having been away from the classified world for a while, I had lost touch with target agility and response to crisis. The access to space for commercial imaging platforms is nothing short of astonishing. I found I had been looking at an incomplete section of a mighty dam, and in a series of marvelous rich colored pictures the progress of construction. Later there were images that appeared to show a lake forming behind the structure. Filling it would take two years, according to the estimates, and that essentially would be the water Egypt needs to drink. Here is the headline:

Nile to a trickle
· Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam began construction in 2011 and is due to begin filling with water this month
· 500ft-high, 6,000ft-wide, £3billion construction project spans the Blue Nile, the Egyptian Nile’s main source
· Egypt bitterly opposes the project, which it calls an ‘existential threat’ and has hinted it could go to war over it
· Satellite images now appear to show lake behind the dam filling up, threatening to spark a war in east Africa
It was a powerful story told with ground truth. There were images from up close, similar in concept to the ones our Attaches used to collect at the risk of personal harm. It was amazing to someone who used to look at that information in black and white. Now it is fused in color, with the shots incorporating what used to be classified HUMINT collection. I was knocked out, and almost wished I was back in the analytic game with these kind of tools at my fingertips.

If you want to see the old world through new eyes, I recommend the article in the Daily Mail by Chris Pleasance. I don’t know if he is a P.I. by training, but that is an ancient art whose ship has apparently sailed. Far out.

Copyright 2020 Vic Socotra
http://www.vicsocotra.com