(Russian SU-24 Fencer twin engine attack jet. Photo Wikipedia Commons).

I was electrified when I heard the news yesterday morning: the Turks had dispatched two F-16 Fighting Falcon jets to bushwhack the Russian aircraft that have been conducting bombing missions over northwest Syria- and incidentally crossing Turkish Airspace.

It is a tickling bit of business. I have supported tactical jets in the region before. We had to take meticulous notes about our regular flight operations near what former Libyan strongman Muammar Qaddafi had termed the “Line of Death” in the Gulf of Sidra. We deliberately crossed it to affirm our position that the concept of “Straight Baseline” definition of territorial waters and airspace was totally bogus.

Later in the same Med Cruise, we were conducting an exercise with the Israelis in the incredibly constrained airspace over the Jewish State. I got word from Combat that there had been a breach of Egyptian airspace in the Sinai by one of our jets. I went down to the CAG-6 space to find the air wing commander and let him know we might have some problems coming.

CAG Richardson looked at me sheepishly and said: “I know. It was me. I got wrapped up in a target run and couldn’t bend it around again fast enough. Let me know if the Ambassador calls.”

Thankfully, the Egyptians chose not to protest and the matter blew over. But that is not always the case.

Here is the deal: the Turks claim they repeatedly warned the Russians that they were heading for their territory. Here is the geography, as depicted in the radar chart released by the Turkish Defense Ministry yesterday:

(Turkish air defense tracking. The red line is the flight path of the Russian jets. Photo Turkish MOD).

You can see the problem. There is a little chunk of Turkey that pokes into Syria, and the racetrack the Russians were using to hit whoever it is that they are targeting this week.

The result was significant. The video images of the SU-24 Fencer going down in flames got my heart racing. The idea of an AIM-9 Sidewinder air-to-air Infrared missile entering your tailpipe is not a pleasant one, and the Russian yet was burning all the way down. It crashed in Syrian territory, near Turkman Mountain, and had been in Turkey for all of seventeen seconds.

(The SU-24 going down in flames. Screen grab courtesy the Independent Balkan News Agency).

The repercussions were immediate. Videos released by Syrian rebels appeared to show one pilot dead after being shot after ejecting. His co-pilot was captured, which prompted a twelve-hour rescue operation, probably conducted by elite SPTZNAZ soldiers. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said this morning that the guys who rescued the surviving pilot will receive decorations and the one who was killed will get a posthumous Hero of Russia medal.

One of the two rescue helos was also forced down and destroyed by a U.S.-built TOW anti-tank missile, killing a “Marine.” I take that to mean SPETNAZ, since they wear a characteristic striped naval jersey under their cammies. I have a lot of respect for them. They are very capable people.

So, later, I am sitting with Jon-without at the Front Page, wondering about the consequences. “So, let me get this straight,” Jon without said, straightening his bow tie. “We have Russians, Americans, Syrians and Turks all flying in the same general area. The Russians have been over-flying Turkish territory and have been warned. Isn’t there the possibility that someone may make a miscalculation?”

I nodded grimly into my vodka and diet tonic with lime. “Yeah. I have been wondering if this was going to happen to us,” I said. “Or them by us.”

“But don’t we all want to crush ISIS?” asked lovely Jamie, who was a little frazzled by her new commute from Chantilly and was using the Front Page as a lilly-pad before completing the journey to Woodbridge.

“Well, sort of.” I said. “We have Russia and Iran who want to prop up the Assad regime, and everyone else wants to topple the butcher. That includes, in general order, the French, the Brits, the Turks, the Israelis, the rebels and us. I have never quite seen anything like this. There are at least two wars going on, and the Saudis and the Emirates are backing whoever is Sunni, which includes ISIS, and the Iranians who are backing the Shias. Except it also seems that our NATO ally Turkey may actually have been the one that trans-shipped the weapons from Benghazi that were supposed to go to the rebels and gave them to ISIS instead.”

“Wasn’t it a lot simpler when it was just us and the Russians?”

“Sure seemed like it. But back then, both sides were professional. We knew what was at stake if someone screwed up. This seems more like the eve of World War One, when no one was quite sure about what was going to happen, didn’t actually want to plow Europe into a zone of fire, end all the empires and dislocate whole populations.”

“Well, is this the Guns of November then?”

“I dunno. The only ones with nukes at the moment are the Russians, the French, the Brits and the Israelis. Unless the Iranians have bought one from the Pakistanis or the North Koreans, I think that will still be a ways off for them.”

“So no Armageddon, right?” Jon looked concerned.

“Hopefully not. But there is still some angry rhetoric coming out of the Kremlin and I have every confidence there will be a tit-for-tat. But remember, there is oil and gas in this big time. The Russians are using our targeting information to hit the tanker trucks we wouldn’t in order to hurt ISIS financing. Then, there is the regional issue. Russia’s cancellation of the South Stream natural gas pipeline project, which was going to go under the Black Sea, has had substantial ripple effects on the energy dynamics on the European continent. The Russians and Europeans have schemes to replace it, but in any event that is going to put Turkey in a pivotal position for the alternate Southern Corridor route or the TANAP- the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline. That would get natural gas to Europe from Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz II field to the EU.”

Jamie nodded, since she analyzes these sorts of things. “Moscow can’t easily give up the European market where demand for natural gas is growing, especially at a time when low oil prices have hammered its export-dependent economy. There is a cost to adventurism.”

“So what do you think the Russians are going to do?” asked Jon, looking concerned. “Mr. Putin sounded pissed off yesterday when he said that the Turks had stabbed him in the back?”

“They have an old helicopter and missile cruiser in the east Med, the Moskva, and they are moving it in closer to the waters north of Latakia on the coast. Then they can provide missile coverage and start escorting the Fencers with air superiority Flankers. They are also going to beef up their air defense by deploying the S-400 missile system. Trust me, I would not like to be flying inside the envelope of that thing. It is deadly. They say, “if it flies, it dies.””

“And that means they could shoot down Turkish jets, which could cause them to invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which would put NATO at war with Russia.”

I waved my glass at Bryan behind the wide dark wood bar. “One more for me, Bryan,” I called out. Then I turned to Jon and said: “We haven’t even considered what the Kurds and the Iraqis might have to say about any of this. I have been in favor of an independent Kurdistan for a long time, but that means parts of Iraq, Syria and Turkey would have to secede from where they are.”

“Oh, crap.” Said Jon.

“No shit,” I said. “There are way too many variables in this one, and I don’t have a good feeling anyone is in charge at the Capital of the Free World.” Bryan slid a drink in front of me. I eyed it carefully. “It reminds me of the line from Animal House.”

“Which one?” asked Jon.

“My advice to you, Son, is start drinking heavily.”

Copyright 2015 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com
Twitter: @jayare303