(In order to restrain a dog with an unruly streak a short leash is sometimes required to keep them close. Today we are going to explore what may be coming in the New Congress, and what length of leash they may require. Photo Old Mill Store).

OK, the Midterms are sort of done, and the Thanksgiving recess is over this weekend for Congress. That means the early part of the 2024 campaign is already in progress while the leftovers from the holiday meal are still in the fridge. We expect flares on that will erupt in the coming week. We have to get past the Ohio-State vs. Michigan this afternoon before we can turn full attention to that.

A Republican-controlled House means all the tools formerly available to Speaker Pelosi will be available to incoming the incoming Speaker. That is presumed to be Kevin McCarthy, a Republican from California’s 23rd District. That logically will mean he will initiate investigations into some of the Executive Branch irregularities alleged over the last five or six years and stop other ones that have been in progress over the same issues. This may require a short leash.

From our vantage point, now over Big Pink’d northeast parking lot, we confess to a certain amount of burn-out. There has been a seemingly endless series of Congressional subpoenas, hearings and Special Counsels for years. None have come up with anything but process offenses by the accused. Replaying them all with an alternate spin to punish the punishers is liable to be a reprise of old aggravation.

Since it is likely to start unfolding in just a few days, we thought it might be useful to map out what the new House might choose to do.

We aren’t talking about what is actually going on, of course. That is part of a larger conflict about the authority of the Chief Executive- the President- to assert much of his agenda through unilateral Executive Orders. Talk at the moment is about the Student Loan debt issue, which even if declared unconstitutional, could eat billions of dollars unallocated by Congress. Even so, the Administration appears determined to press forward. This matter should be resolved by the High Court, which provides another avenue of struggle. Before the turkey went in the oven there were accusations against a sitting judge. This one is different from the Roe v. Wade leak that provided an issue in the mid-terms. But it does indicate a separate struggle continues about the nature, role and number of Justices on the Court.

So, we anticipate the multi-faceted struggle about how America is governed will continue with new zest. This winter will feature the new House attempting to constrain the Executive, while continuing to struggle over the role of Congress and the Court. What will begin to happen this week?

The Old Salts were naturally excited about the Vice President’s important trip to the Philippines, where there is talk of the US Navy returning to the old base at Subic Bay to oppose an expansionist China. There are a lot of memories about that place, and that is just one of the external matters under consideration.

Other actions on the Domestic Front will be sharply divided along the usual Blue and Red lines. But we are gratified the show will go on. In order to maintain focus and control, the new Speaker is going to have to maintain focus and emphasis on meaningful investigations. He will have to act fast, since there are new committee chairs and staffs to integrate for effective legislative activity. Messaging must be effectively controlled to combat hostile media coverage eager to seize upon missteps in over-reach to characterize them all as illegitimate actions by potential insurrectionists.

The news folks have needed a slightly shorter leash for some time. CBS just started talking about that Laptop issue, now two or three years old.

Investigating Hunter Biden’s digital activity is naturally one of the sensational issues. Viewed from an information management perspective, it has everything one could desire to create a stinkarama. Due to the numerous salacious aspects contained on the hard drive of that Apple computer, McCarthy should handle this with care. Family matters are sensitive things. There is ample precedent for investigating them, of course, with the entire Trump family having been dragged into previous shots of the limelight. But precedent has little justification these days. The partisan lines are so deeply carved that accusations of inappropriate past conduct in office are now irrelevant to the actual matter of who will be controlling the United States Government in two years.

Actions? Organizing the House. Then setting up hearings. Calling Tony Bobulinski, Hunter’s business partner, to testify should be a priority. If the Garland Justice Department claims that this interferes with an ongoing investigation, make the AG spell out on exactly what grounds those might be.

Non-actions: Impeachment. Naturally it is tempting, given recent history. But holding an impeachment proceeding that will fail in a divided Senate could backfire in messaging when the Upper Chamber gets the bill and rejects it. This also reflects the first action, which is to attempt to put some discipline into the process.

Discipline could be derailed with fights over old issues mixed up with impeaching Cabinet Secretaries and assigning blame for the Covid adventure. Homeland Security Chief Alejandro Mayorkas is dangling as low fruit over an uncontrolled immigration issue just to start. The mess made of Covid policy damaged the credibility of the Public Health monolith and could easily produce an exploitable issue for both sides of the vast chasm in partisan allegiance.

Language has been a large component of the messaging struggle. Here at home, “Equality” became “Equity.” But it has happened everywhere, differing only by degree. The terms being thrown around reflect other and older struggles against real evil. They evoke a bloodthirsty tinge on modern issues once applied mostly to an enemy leadership. The fight about ‘virtue’ on social is so profound as to actually impact elections. The problem for a Red House will be focus, and the vast scope of the activities that could be exploited.

So what will we be seeing shortly? First, resolution of how and who will be in leadership in the GOP House leadership. There will turmoil until that is settled. In progress now are private discussions about committee assignments, leadership and intentions. The ability of new leadership to stay focused and organized will be the key pivot points in the march to 2024. We expect Hunter Biden’s affairs to be an early focus. The examination of his activities will require the House to keep Members on a short leash. Censure, rather than impeachment, will likely be what the House can achieve. There will only be parallel and opposing moves in the Senate. The Presidency and the keys to this new form of American government are what is at stake.

The question of ‘legitimacy’ has become an issue for our existing system. We are likely to have some interesting solutions presented to us. Most of us swore an oath supporting our Constitution in its existing form. None of us has renounced it. There are existing provisions to change the terms of the document should times require it. This appears to be one of the those times. Just a day or two ago we expressed our Thanks for the manifold blessings bestowed on our nation. We will see how the new folks in town decide to treat things. It could be fun, if we can keep our politicians on a short enough leash.

It also may have some challenges, you know?

Copyright 2022 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com