(Ms Chandsi Kataria of New Delhi demonstrates the dance she will perform in New York’s Times Square to illuminate the American budget process. Photo Kataria).

It is gone now, and frankly we are a little relieved. It was a mild February in the Eastern US. It had all sorts of stuff, a flurry of little things that could turn bad, with the times as treacherous as mud under tank treads. There is word from Europe that the information streams will see more activity than major movements on terrain. We are assured that all sorts of horrors will be unleashed just as soon as the ground firms up.

Back here? Sort of the same deal. In recent modern times, the new federal budget cycle would kick off in about mid-month. The Cherry Blossoms are still a few weeks away, but there is activity on the trees at the Tidal Basin. What is happening uptown is some partisan disputes over the actual activities of our government and its workforce.

We will see the President’s fiscal 2024 budget proposal shortly. It will be presented to the House for the new majority to have their first bite at the document. The new majority intends to be pretty severe about it, though of course this is about Next Year’s Budget, not this one. We still have not figured that matter out completely with the Debt Ceiling crisis pushed back on “Unconventional Practice” that was supposed to run out of tricks in June is now reported to be enabled by new trickery to August.

The New GOP leadership in the House has been preparing to do combat since before last fall’s elections. Spending and Policy are supposed to be important to the fight. That is where things get confusing immediately. We were trying to reconcile the $113 Billion in aid we have supposedly given to Ukraine in the last year, and just heard about another gift dispensed in Kyiv by Secretary Yellen. She popped up there this week. We don’t know which aspect of their government we are funding with our collective tax dollars, except their pensions seem more important than ours.

It has become a little weird on how we are funding our own government. The Federal Fiscal Year runs 01 October-30 September as a result of an old crisis now forgotten. Apparently there used to be rules about this sort of thing so important they could not fix an old problem and let it roll forward through all the budget years. That is what brings the Debt Ceiling to the dance. While federal agencies have funding in place through September 30, they are using the leverage of the prospect of exceeding the federal debt ceiling—temporarily extended through financial maneuvers that are now projected to be used up around August—and the threat of a partial government shutdown starting 01 October, 2023.

Funding for the permanent government- the Deep State Agency spending levels- are projected to be a main area of focus. That includes things like a new FBI headquarters building- one intended to replace the Hoover Building downtown with one filled with thousands of new Special Agents. They also wish to double the IRS workforce, including a vital new armed agent corps. Mr. Biden’s prior budgets generally had sought growth in everything. The GOP would like to freeze or even reduce those government accounts.

Imagine that! Budgeting without incurring more overseas debt. The last time something like that was attempted it wound up in a budget agreement with actual spending caps. It included a novel requirement for “sequestration,” or actual cuts in agency spending if the reductions were not met. Practical consequences resulted in hiring freezes and unpaid furloughs at some agencies during the summer ten years ago. 2013 was the budget cycle directly affected. It was followed several months later by a two- week partial government shutdown.

An early signal this time is the House party-line vote to rescind the additional $80 billion provided last year for the IRS over the next 10 years to concentrate on the matter of doubling the staff who we are assured will only look at taxpayers making more than $400K a year. We know that is ridiculous, but that is what they are telling us with straight faces.

Despite the expressions of confidence, the IRS missed a deadline last week to produce a detailed plan for how it would have used the additional funding. That plan now is promised for the upcoming weeks, about the same time Biden is to release his budget plan.

Remember, we are not leaving a crisis to go to waste. This is intended to use the crisis of the debt ceiling and partial government shutdown to make a bigger crisis that can be exploited for more exciting initiatives no one has had time to read before making law.

Add to the coming crisis the Social Security crisis looming out there a decade hence. It is already beginning, with the SSA telling Congress that backlogs in the system will continue as new staff is hired and trained. The aspect they are comfortable in discussing is the growing “backlog” of disability claims. We are sort of unclear about the whole thing.

Are people actually more disabled, or have they come to accept that staying home to receive a check is preferable to having to get dressed and go to the office? They are only discussing the matter now due to new technology and a dramatic new 800-number to try to get help for “customers.” As with most things in “Next year’s budget,” all sorts of good things will happen in 2024.

We have always had a warm spot in our old bureaucratic hearts when we talk about better times next year. That enabled us to show up for work in this year without having to worry whether our checks were going to come. It also took care of the next year, and the retirements. If there is a problem, we promise to deal with it next year to ensure the year after that is just fine. So, 2025’s budget will be discussed all through 2023 and 2024 in the heat of an electoral contest focused on “fairness and equity.”

It should be fun. Care to come along for the ride? It will be interesting, we assure you! Our contribution is to put some of the grace back in the dance, since it looks a little confused from where we sit…

Copyright 2023 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com