It was a respectable night’s sleep here at Big Pink. Nothing happened, which is another way of saying plenty of stuff was going on, just not here. That is a good thing, since rest is critical to the ability to respond. One of the Salts has adopted the abbreviation for that state as the name of the company he runs: Observe, Orient, Decide and Act: OODA. It is pronounced in military fashion as “Ooooh-dah,” and the phrase was developed as a warfare approach to most effectively marshal response on the battlefield.

John Richard Boyd was responsible for the concept. He was an American Air Force Colonel, among other accomplishments, and a thinker influenced by his times. Born in 1927, Boyd enlisted in the Air Corps in 1944 as a junior in High School in order to serve in the Second World War. His active time as an enlisted man helped frame his later thinking, which included time as a swim instructor in Occupied Japan.

He graduated from the University of Iowa after his enlisted time was done, and gained a commission as an Air Force Second Lieutenant. He also joined a smaller group of pilots known as the Fighter Mafia. The thinking of these officers, inter alia, resulted in development of the F-16 Fighting Falcon, a light and agile jet that became one of the most successful weapons of the Cold War.

That was the practical application of what has come to be known as the OODA Loop, a doctrinal approach to planning at the Operational level of warfare. That is the level of the military art between “tactical” planning and “strategic” warfare.

They are having one of those moments in the Middle East this morning, which made actually rising from horizontal to something approximating vertical become part of today’s Oooh-Dah. The Socotra House mantra for that process is to examine what facts appear relevant, align ourselves in order to exploit potential weakness. Then, with best assessment of truth, commit maximum force to the point of attack.

Both Socotra House and the State of Israel are having an OODA moment on this gray Saturday. We begin our Observation phase of the day with a stroll from bedchamber to Patio. In order to encourage agility, we absorb information along the way with the first puff of tobacco and sip of coffee. When re-entering the plush Socotra Headquarters, we continue the initial phase of analysis, which is to gather our thinking into a coherent response to the events which may- or may not- shape the decisions for the rest of the day.

That is why we were startled this morning with what appeared on the flatscreen in the Operations Suite in the headquarters. Here is what we know, or knew, in that part of the first letter in the abbreviation. “Observe” could be categorized as what happens with the first cup of coffee. That was startling. Apparently Palestinian fighters of the Hamas faction launched five thousand rockets at the State of Israel. Civilians have been killed. Mr. Netanyahu has announced that his nation is in a state of war.

A normal reaction would be to follow Colonel Boyd’s axiomatic thinking. There is war in the Middle East this morning. Now, precedent suggests the Israelis will respond in as decisive manner as they can muster. With the time-zones between Jerusalem and Washington, they are undoubtedly well into orienting their forces and preparing to act.

We do not have fact beyond what the flat-screen inhabitants have displayed to us, so the observation phase is incomplete. Someone just mentioned the religious calendar, which could add to our factual baseline for understanding and action. We are not practicing members of either of the faiths involved in this morning’s sparse accumulation of fact. A trip to the smaller of the flatscreens revealed additional potential facts to include in the equation.

Here is what we know, and where we go. Hamas militants in the south of Israel near Gaza infiltrated Israeli territory. They fired “5,000 rockets” at Israeli targets. The Iron Dome defensive system was overwhelmed and a significant number of casualties were imposed. We heard a number- it was several hundred- but cannot vouch for the authenticity. Those factual details will become clearer over time, but we live in this moment and have made a decision to simply absorb the information as it becomes available.

There is one that is just being mentioned now, which is the coincidence of this military operation and the primary holy day in Judaism, tenth day of the new year. It is known as Yom Kippur. It occurs annually on the 10th of Tishrei, and is observed by Jews and Samaritans. It signifies two concepts in short supply on this day: “Atonement and Repentance.”

In further detail, and important to the timing of these events, is the significance of the Days of Yom Kippur to the State of Israel. This weekend represents the opportunity to repent to God for personal sins and to seek beneficial outcomes for the year ahead. For the Jews, that would be year 5784.

That fact alone exceeds our working knowledge for why this attack happened when it did. And why it occurred at all.

Normally we would be prepared to leap deeper into the Loop analysis. One fact that is among the few strewn across the Patio is that this is a Holy Day for Jews. It is also a day of remembrance, since it is the 50th anniversary of the start of the 1973 Yom Kippur conflict. That abbreviated summary represents all we know at the moment, except the number “5,000” seems pretty large. The people who provided the weapons include the state of Iran, which has previously been known as the largest supporter of global terrorism.

We normally would leap into speculation at this point, which would include the recent developments in relations between the United States and the Iranians. We do not know that for a fact, and Colonel Boyd would remind us to be a little more certain of our facts before we begin to orient ourselves for decisive action against an as-yet unknown foe.

By the time you read this, additional facts will be known and other actors may be further down the OODA Loop that we are. But it is still early on this day, and Colonel Boyd would probably council us to gather some facts, align ourselves to the threat, and then decide what to do about it. We anticipate seeing something shortly, you know? The Israelis are undoubtedly a little further in the Loop than we are….

Copyright 2023 Vic Socotra
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