The storm that has captivated our attention- and killed around fifty citizens- is stalled overhead. Two high pressure systems, one northeast and one to the west, have captured what is left of the fury that traveled west across the Atlantic Ocean from Africa, arced north across Cuba before slamming Florida, raking the interior and intensifying once more as it ravaged Jacksonville before wandering into the Carolinas. Stalled now, and weak. But the chill breeze and gray sky reminds us of what it was.

There was animated discussion about that issue at the Fire Ring, since we all got distracted by the sheer number of things we are supposed to keep track of. There was some mention of the use of nuclear weapons in Europe during the storm’s advance. That would normally be the big deal, and we are still nibbling at the potential End of the World issues that go along with it.

That drew our attention away from the Pacific, and there were some events to remind us to consider them as really important. North Korea apparently viewed the Vice President’s visit to the Republic of SOUTH Korea (there was some minor confusion on that) as a convenient time to launch three missiles as a greeting before her arrival. After her departure, they launched another one as a sort of farewell. This was what the media is reporting as a “Hwasong-12” rocket. They launched it on a trajectory over Japan.

That caused more confusion, and the Fire Ring had already rifled through the files marked “Asian Issues.” It was five years ago that the Northerners last launched rockets in the direction of Japan. You can imagine that was sort of a dramatic statement in 2017, and consequently the US shared some tactical sensors with Japan that provide warning of missile launches. The Aegis radars can do that from warships, and the Army shared a couple ground-based mobile radars that can do the same warning function.

You can imagine the reaction from the Japanese crews operating the radars and the call back to Tokyo: “The NORKS just launched a rocket at us. What would you like us to do?”

A rational command-and-control system would respond, saying: “Based on the azimuth and trajectory, the single-stage rocket with an estimated range of 3,500 miles can’t come down fast enough to actually hit us. The mathematicians say it should fly over and impact someplace east of our Exclusive Economic Zone. Unless it breaks up, of course.” Some of us back here pointed out that would include Guam, but that would have made this a much more incandescent issue.

Which isn’t what happened, since nothing got launched back at the North with an azimuth and trajectory that would smack Pyongyang. That did suffice to vault the Korean problem back up into the top ten, where it has generally stayed for the last sixty or so years.

Also in that bag of issues is the China thing. The Party Congress is coming up in a week or so, and the issues to be discussed there are significant. President Xi is running for a third term, so there is that. Also of interest is the demographic impact of the “one child” policy imposed in 1980 due to proactive concerns about the Population Bomb Mr. Paul Ehrlich wrote about. The parents of those single babies are in their 70s or 80s now, and are looking around for who exactly is going to pay their retirement checks. That is the bomb Mr. Ehrlich should have considered, but that seems to be the usual way these crises work out.

We have been concerned about some of the Top Ten since we were kids. The Soviets had the Big Bomb(s), remember? Oil was for sure running out. Food was getting scarce. The Ice Age was coming back in a few minutes. We have moved things around in the top ten list of urgent things, but they still have a lot in common. We have just changed exactly what the problem with the big issues might be. In Russia, Mr. Putin still has between 4,500-6,000 atomic bombs of a variety of sizes. That hasn’t changed, exactly, but the idea that he told us last week he might actually use one is sort of new. Well, old. We are concerned about Regime Change, but haven’t worked out who will get all those bombs if we get it. You can see why we get confused.

Then there is that energy thing we all depend on. Oil isn’t running out, exactly, but using it is a major crisis because of an atmospheric trace gas that we breath naturally. Food is indeed getting scarce, but it isn’t because we are running out of it because we are eating too much, but rather we can’t grow it because we refuse to use fertilizer because we might grow too much. The Ice Age isn’t coming back today, thankfully, and apparently neither is an Age of Heat, which is why we needed to change the name on the list. We are afraid that the climate might do what the presence of fish fossils on mountaintops indicates. It apparently changes.

We of course adopt the whole list of issues, since all we have to do is move them around on the list or change the name to describe them. We understand we need to stay in compliance and not get told to get off the part of the property the Chairman- or the Army Corps of Engineers- permits us to use.

Anyway, we are thankful that only a couple of the matters on the Top Ten can actually happen today. Those would be the ones with rockets attached. We will be watching the azimuth and trajectory to see if we need to worry about them before lunch. We will keep you posted!

Copyright 2022 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com