I wrote the words this morning in the gray pre-dawn. It had been a marvelous display of the end of season, the death of warmth and sunshine, and the gentle scudding of whimsical white clouds. Now it is an endless stream of chill rain and the patter of drops on the awning insistent enough to provide a backdrop of sound to accompany the dank humidity.

The weather-guessers allude to some possible sunshine tomorrow, but mostly insistent moisture through the week as the days dwindle to the election nine days away. It was fun looking back at other unrelenting emotions that streamed from uncertainty in the public square yesterday. It turned out tolerable last time things were so anguished, as most of them have in the last quarter millennium of our existence as a nation. Like you, I hope it happens again.

I looked at social media as I roused to rain. You know the new aspect of our lives, the one that is larger than our own lives. Some of my progressive pals are clearly roused and unrelenting in their visceral dislike for the man who happens to be president at the moment. I have never responded to them, at least not with keyboard. A laugh or two seems sufficient here in the great room at the farm, but the unrelenting emotion is as tiresome as the incessant downpour on the back deck.

We have been through the rapids on this one, more so than with Hillary’s quest that seemed as relentless as the downfall from heaven. What was interesting was that even in defeat her anger continued, right through this last week before the real last week, which will only presage the fight after the weekday that used to relentlessly forge the future every four years.

I am working on the prospects for that. Should be fun, if a bit complex. We already know there will be confusion aplenty. In that spirit, I thought it might be useful to look at the next unrelenting storm heading this way. I think we are already aware that this will be an unusual election. Here we are, nine days out, and the media informs us that 53 million Americans- or mostly Americans- have already voted. We are used to declaring the next President deep in the night of election day. In keeping with the astonishing events of 2020, we may have that again, even though it could be wrong. So put that in the pipe to smoke by the fireplace.

So, we may have half (or more than half) of the voting public convinced they have triumphed, even as the votes are still being counted in a process vast enough never to have been attempted before. That will be the first of several challenges to the normal order. “Normal” is what will happen at specified times through the seventy-eight days between the general election on Nov. 3 and Inauguration Day on Jan. 20.
What happens between then is mostly formality, with only a couple struggles over the last two hundred and fifty years. But if we are to have another of these electoral ambiguities, there are dates to keep in mind as we pile legal challenges across the more than 10,000 electoral components in this Republic. Constitutional crisis? Sure. But here are some of the things to keep in mind and the various crisis components straight. That could be important.

Nov. 3: Election Day and Early Voting
Elections are run by the states, not the Federal Government. That will add to the confusion. Not in solid Red or Blue ones, as a rule, but in the ones that tinge purple the fun will begin. Depending on the state, voters may vote in-person before Nov. 3 or submit a mail-in ballot before that date. What is important to consider is that voters are not selecting a specific candidate. They are actually selecting a slate of electors who are pledged to vote for a particular candidate.
This is the Electoral College. In 48 states, these people are pledged to vote for the winner of the greatest number of popular votes, regardless of who is actually popular. In Maine and Nebraska it doesn’t work that way, so keep that in mind. Those two states only give two electors to the state’s popular vote winner, with the remainder being allocated on the plurality of votes in each congressional district. The results are not certified, but may lay to rest the question of who won.

Dec. 14: Electoral College
The Constitution dictates that electors must cast ballots on the first Monday after the second Wednesday of December in an election year. That doesn’t close the matter, since more weeks may pass before the votes are officially counted. Prospects for fun abound.

Jan. 6: Congress Counts Electoral Votes
The Electoral Count Act of 1887 mandates that a joint session of Congress will convene at 1 p.m. on Jan. 6. The 12th Amendment tasks the President of the Senate, Vice President Mike Pence, presides over the proceedings. Count on merriment if the House or Senate flip in the process, since those terms are supposed to begin at the beginning of the calendar year.
Pence is supposed to “open all certificates and papers purporting to be certificates.” The magic number of electoral votes for victory is 270. If there was not enough fun in progress, it is possible the Presidential race could wind up tied at 269 apiece. Should that occur, the 12th Amendment mandates the House to hold a contingent election with each state casting a single vote for president. The magic number then becomes a simple majority of states: 26. Should this occur, the Senate holds a similar election for Vice President. Each Senator gets a single vote. The candidate who gets at least 51 votes wins the vice presidency.

Here is where the real fun continues. It is possible there could be another tie. If the House hasn’t chosen a president by Inauguration Day, the vice president-elect will become acting president until the House chooses a head of state. That is one of the ways that Speaker Pelosi could wind up in the mix, though the Senate, at the moment, is not her base. The ruling document in that case is the Presidential Succession Act of 1947. Under that law, the mantle of acting president would fall to Madam P.

Jan. 20: Inauguration Day
Assuming the election produced a president-elect, as it usually does, that person will be sworn into office on Jan. 20. In a happier world, the vice president and president would be sworn in at the traditional noontime ceremony. It may or may not be important that their terms begin whether or not the oath has been administered.
An outgoing president will retain power until 11:59:59 a.m., then immediately shift to the incoming president, avoiding a constitutional power vacuum. Even so, the incoming president may not execute the powers of the office until being sworn in, as spelled out in Article II, Section 1 of the Constitution. The Chief Justice of the Supreme Court has become the customary official to administer the oaths, and hence some of the emotion about the SCOTUS appointment of Judge (at this moment) Barrett as a Justice. Somewhere in there are the words “solemnly swear to faithfully execute the office of president of the United States” and the other ones about “defending the Constitution of the United States.”

The COVID crisis- they assure me there is one- could change up the rest of the usual inauguration day, but for now, let’s just assume that there will be plenty to talk about in the 78 days. I am hoping that we can settle the matter in the usual manner. But there is talk that Mr. Biden should never under any circumstances concede an unfavorable outcome, and this morning I heard the press questioning whether or not Mr. Trump will willingly give up the office. Both would enhance the glamour and thrills of this unique election.
There will be plenty more to hang around the Christmas tree, but here is where we start for this one. We will be talking about it a lot, though hopefully not for 78 days. I guess we will see, right? I just hope it is less unrelenting than the rain.

Copyright 2020 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com