The number of flashing red lights is past the critical stage. We had a solid “red” on the I&W deck already. We are now watching the start of tactical deployment. The consensus at Refuge Farm’s Writer’s Section thinks it likely that it is war next week. The Russian ground exercise in Belarus is in progress (Day 2). The Strategic Nuclear Forces exercise and Naval amphibious exercise (guarded by two massive SLAVA-Class cruisers) are both scheduled for next week.

What does that mean? Our small group of former J2 seniors thinks it could range from the “small incursion” the President essentially gave a green light to several weeks ago to something else. One of the Old Salts said he thought it would start “limited” and, based on incremental feedback, if an incursion goes well it will get much bigger.

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US response? We have more troops going to Poland and USAF deploying F-15s and B-52s to the NATO (AOR), so this could go sideways quickly. We are past the point where the discussion shown above at the top between Putin and Macron of France will result in “deterrence.” With weather an imperative factor for armor mobility this now has factors in the field driving much larger national policies.

– Vic