We had a conversation about the lower image placed in the center of the weekly montage of joy and misery. The headlines in the SuperMarket News brought back memories of the America in which we were raised. Remember? The important issues of the day were festooned in racks by the chewing gum at the cash register. This morning’s news brought back Pentagon memories. Some of us had served on the the Joint Staff a while back. Just after the Gulf War, which used to be just one, and not “The Gulf Wars in Syria and Iraq and Yemen and Iran.”

We learned a lot when it was just one war. Some associates took the lessons-learned from the conflict and turned some of it into a program. The lesson from desert combat had been clear: A steady look at what the enemy is up to is very useful. It was known then as a thing called “dwell.”

You may have seen the event on video this morning. It is pretty spectacular air-to-air footage. The MQ-9 Reaper Drone was collecting images and caught the Russian SU-27 Flanker in a flared approach, dumping fuel in the air. The chatter from those who had been in the business of surveillance and dwell and air defense was brisk. There was a rollicking conversation on the personalities who had developed the project from ‘concept’ in the Navy to ‘operational’ deployment by the Air Force. Along the way, the ‘unarmed prototype drone’- the Predator- sprouted weapons-racks under the wings to carry Hellfire missiles.

That discussion led to a debrief of the incident. There are some common issues with the recent balloon shoot-downs here in America. Whatever they were. That is part of the uncertainty factor. The drones and balloons are relatively slow-moving platforms. The Flankers and our F-15 Eagles are designed to be speedy air-superiority platforms, so interactions between fast and slow flying things adds complication to the whole engagement envelope.

The event was the first force-down of an American surveillance platform since the Cold War. Response to the incident therefore is creating precedent in new times. Specifically, the incident occurred over the Black Sea. It was in international air space. It was unmanned. The interaction that knocked out the propellor on the Drone may have been accidental even while provocative. The Russians claim the Reaper was not broadcasting IFF signals. It doubtless was transmitting information on the Russians. That means Americans are contributing to the Ukrainian ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance & Reconnaissance) picture.

So, the consensus was that we should expect additional upward ratchets on the escalation ladder. The general consensus is that this event will likely pass without additional kinetic action. But naturally we are now in a situation where the individual acts of a fighter pilot or a drone operator far away could quickly make inadvertent national policy. So, additional conversation followed before we transition to holiday routine in honor of Saint Patrick. A trip to the local distillery seems in order.

That approach is a little easier than Black Sea aerial engagements. It does share the peril of individual decision-making. We contemplated the best way to approach things. Perhaps a Bank Panic could add some social excitement. We turned to Buck, our resident Economist. he is not tinged with previous allegiances in the Executive Branch.

“You gotta look back at the consequences of Federal Reserve policy over the last decade. With interest rates basically at nothing, all kinds of money flowed out. It was like Dodd-Frank back in 2007. Anyone could qualify for real estate loans without having to prove income. That resulted in a balloon, and it was not a Chinese surveillance version. This one is a product of the same sort of policy decision on money management. The best place to store some of that loose cash was in T-bills. The interest rates were fixed at low rates which with inflation transitioned from “asset” to “liability.” That means there is a lot of cash coming out of the bond market with no constructive place to be re-invested.”

“So we can expect more bank failures?”

“There is a lot of cash flying around. It is not even attached to mortgages. Just a bond market with rates fixed below inflation.”

That line of logic was alarming. There was further discussion about the timing of St. Patrick’s holiday and the one the financial industry is having. We decided to combine then, which is essentially what the Fed has been doing for a while. We will take our checkbooks to Belmont Farms for a little holiday relief. Just in case there is a rush on Kopper Kettle Single Malt, you know? We prefer to avoid panic.

Copyright 2023 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com