We had a minor squabble this morning. Had we actually sent the weather report this week? Our stab at amateur meteorology is part of another parallel project. Some day that one may someday show our progress along the road to perdition. As citizens, we can take a fairly broad view of it. For the Navy veterans around the Fire Ring, it is a reference similar to the call “Attention on Deck!” which is to rise in respect to a senior or distinguished visitor.

This morning, it is something different than sitting with a view of blackened stones under clear chill skies. We could talk about the craziness surrounding the election, now less than three weeks away, or the Russian jet that “accidentally” released a rocket while flying along with an unarmed British reconnaissance aircraft. Nothing dramatic occurred except the tone of the messaging.

There are nuances to these little military things. But one struck us this week as a little research project. All the Navies that have Ballistic Missile Submarines have traditionally considered the location of those boats as part of the most secret operations. They are strategic weapons of mass destruction, after all, carrying dozens of Trident missiles armed with dozens of re-entry vehicles.

We have been away from the Fleet for a while, so no longer claim to have any particular insight into the operational status of the United States Strategic Reserve. We actually sort of enjoy not thinking about it. So the announcement that USS West Virginia, an Ohio-class Ballistic Missile SSBN, was surfaced in the Arabian Sea was surprising. The initial reports were just that the submarine hosted the visit of the Fifth Fleet commander. Presumably, the disclosure was to ensure he knew it was there. But you can imagine how confused the Salts were!

Here is the history of that deal: The Navy contracted for construction of 18 of the Ohio-class boats. It was considered a large number by both participants in the bi-polar struggle. A treaty old enough to have been negotiated with the Soviet leadership agreed to reduce that number of US ballistic missile subs to “14,” and similar reductions to Soviet Yankee and Delta-class boomers as a means of threat reduction. That left a difference of four boats that would be scrapped or put to other, non-strategic use. Since the submarines were still fairly new and with plenty of reactor hours remaining on their power plants. So, waste not, want not. The Navy converted four of the hulls from “SSBNs” (nuclear ballistic missile armed) to “SSGN,” (cruise missile carriers).

(What are those pod things plopped on top of this submarine’s missile bays? SEAL delivery units? Some sort of missile delivery units? And didn’t the Russians recently make one of their new SSBNs, larger than the Ohio-class, disappear at sea?)

So the question around the Fire Ring was multi-layered. Revealing the presence of the submarine in waters half the world away from home-port was dramatic. The question then became one of what message was being sent and to whom? With nuclear tensions at a high level due to the special Russian military operation in Ukraine, was this a lateral sort of response designed to remind Iran and Russia that the threat orientation has another route of access? Which submarine is actually operating out there? Is it a boat with big or smaller missiles?

Additional research indicates West Virginia was not one of the boats converted to carry hundreds of cruise missiles. So apparently, the strategic threat is the message being shared. If our analysis is accurate, that sets the bar fairly high on the “Impending Doom” indicator. But there were also reports that modular packages were in development that could be quickly loaded on the un-modified hulls to change the delivery packages. So, what message was being sent? And to whom?

Iran has been a problem since the Shah was overthrown and the zealots took over more than 40 years ago. Our perceptions- the ones that shape the message all of us are supposed to understand- are rooted in that event long ago. Iranian fighter pilots were still being trained down in Pensacola, Florida, back then. This morning, educated Iranian women are reacting to the death of a young woman who died in custody of the special religious police. There is unrest in the streets across Iran.

So, what exactly is the message being sent? Is it to Mr. Putin? Could it be to China, which is conducting a major regime conference? Will President Xi be replaced or confirmed for an unprecedented third term in power? There are clouds obscuring part of that forecast.

At Refuge Farm we are happy to report that our local skies will be clear, even if the rest of the Weather Report Forecast is a little cloudy. We have our election now bearing down with less than twenty days to go. The forecast for that event is for a peaceful transfer of power by some parts of our currently unified leadership. So, ‘clear but cold today, with changes coming’ seems to be a reasonable assumption.

But the direction from which that change might come is a little uncertain, you know? Or what sort of weather might be loaded in the package. We will be keeping our attention, at least momentarily, on what is on which deck.

Copyright 2022 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com