The Writer’s Section was scrambling this morning. The skies were bright, some of the humidity had passed with the rain clouds that swept up. The Weather Report we do for the Chairman needed some work to connect all the dots that don’t seem to actually point anywhere.

There is still enormous concentration on the Special Military Operation Russia has decided to undertake. The enormous expenditure of munitions and lives aimed at the Ukrainians holding out at the Azov Steel Works at Mariupol seems to have ended. How that is categorized naturally is reflected through the Narrative streams. From the perspective of Ukraine, it is an “evacuation” after a desperate and valiant fight. From the Russian side it is a bit more muted than dramatic triumph, and there is talk of a “prisoner exchange” that could bring the Azov veterans home.

Meanwhile, it appears the Ukrainians may be in a position to seize some parts of Russia in their counterattacks. That has some drama with it, though the images of wreckage all look similar to other wreckage we have seen for nearly 80 days of war.

The Real Deal, if one can be found in these days of combative streams of information, is about what is beginning to come to us now. Marie Antoinette had a helpful instruction for people complaining about a lack of bread in her empire. “Laissez-les manger du gâteau!” she was said to have said. It was a remark as delightfully daft as what we hear from Washington these days. A better way to put it though might be to change what is consumed. Today, it might be better put as “Laissez-les boire du diesel!”

We had to put Emeritus Economist Buck on that one, since he understands the issue better than most citizens. “The thing is diesel fuel,” he said slowly. “There are two wars going on at the moment. Both directly affect the course of ordinary life. The war in Ukraine has disrupted normal distribution channels for diesel fuel. That has broad impact on global supply chains, since every means of transit and transportation is dependent of fossil fuel.

That includes the electric vehicles, windmills and production of solar panels. Adding to that was the American and European decision-making that declared war on fossil fuels.

The impact is beginning to be felt now, though the full blossom will not come until the harvest season with empty fields. Ukrainian farmers are the breadbasket of Europe and the Middle East. They are flooding fields that should be growing wheat and sunflowers in order to slow Russian tanks. That aquatic diversion will force them onto roads where they can be targeted and destroyed. That is a harvest they are willing to accept.

The wheat and sunflowers that would have produced bread and cooking oil will yield nothing. The diesel fuel that powers the agricultural machinery that would have planted and harvested the crop is a record high levels, as is the Diesel Fuel Marine (DFM) that powers the ships to transport the product, and in America, the machines to unload them and fill the trucks that carry all the products to market.

Buck frowned. “You can bitch about the price at the pump for the cars, but those gallons of fuel are competing against diesel production to keep everything in motion. If diesel production stops, so does everything else.”

We took a poll down by the Fire Ring. We decided we are in favor of motion, and even more supportive of lunch. The government of little Sri Lanka has fallen and rioting in the streets is common. India, the second largest nation on earth, has already announced a ban on some food exports. There are further reports from all over that reflect some of the same issues of stress and anger. Over hunger. And this is before the empty harvest of fall.

The little demonstration about baby formula here in the States is just an example of what is already coming to places that don’t have a lot of cushion, and not a lot of gateau. So, take a look around. The price of diesel at the pump will tell us a lot about what is going to happen to us all. As the circle at the Fire Pit agreed, we would prefer to drink something quite different than diesel.

Copyright 2022 Vic Socotra
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