Another exciting week in the world we share! OK, so we have the continuing NATO nuclear exercise- the one that started a couple weeks ago- and the Russian forces announcing their own version with an ICBM launch from a ballistic missile sub way up there where the waters are cold. The messaging is a little confusing. Yesterday, we had indications that strategic forces were deployed and ready for combat like the one we accepted back in the Cold War. This morning, that same readiness is said to be a demonstration that everything is just business-as-usual and actually a comforting continuation of the old horrifying peacetime.

We gave up on the residual partisan animosities a few months ago and just started following the narrative streams. An honest poll taken around he Fire Pit indicates we no longer can judge objective fact in any of it. Except in generalities of course. We think our poll is accurate, since we are not mailing it in. The big polls from the media organizations represent something different but unspoken. You may have noticed the way the polls were covered. There seemed to be some general opposition to what is happening to the U.S. Economy, and some somewhat muffled mention of criminal behavior while pressing a couple social issues. We are in the middle of one of those here in the VA-7 election and some of the ads are startling in terms of venom contained.

They say the polls narrow approaching the election not because voters are hyperventilating over their civic responsibility. The pollsters are just reporting their results differently. You could say “honestly,” but it is actually a market function. They sell the impact of their polls in support of fundraising when that is useful. Closer to the actual election, accuracy is the standard by which the next cycle’s fundraising credibility will be based.

It is sort of fun to see the old techniques applied to new distribution universe. So, the various information streams continue on with varying intensity, depending on which source you are plugged into. We are trying to decode what may actually be happening in a dozen days. On the partisan scorecard, we think the House will flip. There is a possibility that the Senate may as well. There are some interesting races in progress there. Should there be a tsunami of some sort, the regularity of the electoral process here may have downstream effects on a world worried about other things.

It will be an interesting dozen days. One pundit ominously mentioned the Russian invasion of Ukraine followed the conclusion of a strategic exercise “by five days.” There was mention of a Russian plot to detonate a dirty weapon of some sort and blame the Ukrainians. Or maybe that was vice-versa. It is a challenge to keep the various streams of information straight. In terms of this week’s forecast, we are praying for peace. And waiting for surprise.

Copyright 2022 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com