“We are going to be OK.”
– President Joe Biden in his SOTU remarks last night.

We had the morning production meeting early. Yesterday, we were concerned by the emergence of the term “Throw Weight.” It had an ominous tenor intended to keep the West at bay. We had read the text of the President’s remarks to Congress on the State of the Union last night, and on recommendation from our legal staff are not going to issue snarky or otherwise critical commentary. We were impressed that Mr. Biden was able to stay up longer than we could, all things considered. Being under a state of observation, we thought it might be acceptable to analyze external events in the invasion of an independent country by a Russia seeking to resuscitate an old position on the world stage.

Some smart folks have applied traditional military analytic skills to the Ukraine conflict, now entering the end of the first week of operations. We no longer have access to National Technical Means of collection, so our local assessment are based on Open Source information which could be influenced by information warfare narratives.

There have been apparent problems in the Russian execution of the campaign, including reports of food and fuel shortages which have delayed the now famous “42 mile” convoy of military vehicles seeking to conquer the capital of Kyiv. It is easy to get which truck convoys are under discussion. Selected highlights to expect for Russia’s plan of action today:

– Russian forces are setting conditions to envelop Kyiv from the west and attempting to open up a new axis of attack from the east. Resupply and formation issues remain in the attempt to encircle, rather than level the city. The latter approach will involve displacement and casualties to hundreds of thousands of civilians who remain.
– Expect a renewed ground offensive to seize Kharkiv following the air/artillery/missile attack it has been conducting in the past 24 hours.
– In the southeast, Russian and proxy forces will attempt to solidify the “land bridge” linking Rostov-on-Don with Crimea, permitting easier re-supply and freedom of movement to support efforts further west.
– Russia’s successful seizure of Kherson city may allow ground forces to resume their interrupted drive toward Mykolayiv and Odesa.
– Belarusian forces have likely entered the war on Russia’s side despite denials by the Belarusian president. They have already permitted staging and incursion into Ukraine by Russian troops.

Ukrainian situation? Assassination teams intended to decapitate the leadership have failed thus far but will continue. The fall of Kyiv is likely over Russian successful encirclement, followed by a violent street-by-street conflict. Ukraine’s population is a little over 40 million citizens. Nearly a million have already fled. One of Russia’s failures, thus far, is to shut down Ukrainian messaging on social and international media. Reports of Russian troops surrendering to Ukrainians continue with narrative content of injustice by Kremlin forces. The failure of the Russian narrative- “Fighting Nazis!” is apparent.

Likely prospects? Mr. Putin is reported to be concerned by the performance of the Russian security forces, the depth of the planning for unanticipated stiff resistance, and materiel condition of vehicles. Russian forces are now hammering Ukrainian cities. Leaked US military assessments conclude that the cities will fall, probably in another month to six weeks. Same assessments conclude that Russia will never truly control Ukraine — and that Russian military forces are soon going to face a truly hellacious insurgency, one that will last for years.

Near Term: Ukraine Loses. Long Term: Russia Loses.

Copyright 2022 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com