The Writer’s Circle had made their input to the mid-week submission for Socotra House. DeMille had tried to steer the group back to some middle ground between the horrors of mass graves in Ukraine, rockets going in all sorts of novel directions, sinking warships and tractors hauling disabled Russian tanks across fields that should be bringing in winter wheat. But aren’t.

Splash was off on a usual tear. Having been a Pacific Fleet sailor in his days of youth, he has been pressing for discussion of China and their various issues for weeks. He raised the real estate crisis looming there a few weeks ago. Then there was the diplomatic attempt to secure rights to the international airfield at Honiara, part of their great “Belt and Road” initiative to create new trade lanes to Beijing around the world. Splash was agitated about that as a former flier, particularly since that airfield had been known as “Henderson Field” up until the United States lost interest in it in 1945.

Original construction of the airfield had been started by the Japanese to solidify control of the sea lanes to Australia. In order to forestall that strategic development, US Marines were landed and captured the half-finished runway on August 7, 1942. They re-named the field for a Marine aviator killed at the Battle of Midway, Lofton R. Henderson.

Left abandoned for nearly fifty years after the conclusion of the Pacific War, it became the principal Air Point of Departure (APOD) for Australia’s Regional Assistance Mission to the Solomon Islands (RAMSI). In the process, the field was renamed Honiara International Airport in September 2003, after the RAMSI deployment in July that year.

Now considerably improved, China has expressed an interest in a “non-militarized” use of the airfield. That, presumably, would be in the same spirit as the three uninhabited islands in the South China Sea which have been suitably militarized. And that, along with Splash’s Uncle who had served with General Vandergrift’s 1st Marine Division.

So, with the anniversary of the Marine’s first landing on a foreign shore this week, Tripoli, there was a certain amount of emotion about turning it over to the PRC and for many of the same reasons. DeMille was sympathetic, but swept a hand across the Weather Report Board.

“So, look at all this. We have all of these issues in play at home and abroad. How are we going to convey an integrated and inclusive message about what our readers are supposed to do about them? Or better, how to get ready for what is to come?”

Buck sat up straight and appeared to be preparing to actually rise. He appeared to think better of it. “As an emeritus Economist, I am not under the direct supervision of the Socotra House legal staff.” Amanda, our House Attorney, blushed merrily. Melissa raised her hand to make a short declaration that she too was under no restrictions to a Code of Military Justice theoretically applicable to the retired community. Buck nodded in sympathy and continued.

“The essence of this is that China sits atop many of the world’s sea-lines of communication. They have had much of the industrial production of the Western nations relocated to their shores. And now, purely economic issues are impacting that central node. Shanghai, the great port city, had been shut down due to the latest Covid emergency. That is going to exacerbate the supply chain issue. They are already atop a real estate crisis similar to the one that ended Japan’s great economic rise, and the one that brought America to the Great Recession in 2008. China’s woes will be reflected globally as attention is focused on a land war in Europe that looks like it go nuclear.”

“Secretary Austin said nuclear war was not a successful strategy for anyone when he was in Kyiv this week.” Loma was pleased that things had veered back to a military theme on which he could comment without penalty.

“That doesn’t mean there could not be a miscalculation.”

“Two negatives in one sentence show you how difficult it is. Plus, just talking about Henderson Field and China brings us back to things like the threat to food. Ukraine is a write off for much of Europe and Middle East’s grain supply. And there are reports that the US winter wheat crop is 69% in trouble due to fertilizer and weather trouble.”

“So, you are saying that we have regional troubles spilling out all over?”

Buck laughed. “Just look at our stock market. There is some thinking that it is starting to show itself all sorts of places.”

DeMille looked at the weather chart. “We are not supposed to comment on the border crisis, the inflation, or what impact the elections are going to have. So I recommend we stay away from that.”

There was a nearly unanimous series of nods around the circle. There was a certain sense, not attributable to anyone in specific liability, that maybe it was starting already. There seemed to be general agreement it might be worth watching.

Copyright 2022 Vic Socotra
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