We have to do the Weather Report this week, and it looks a bit like the local forecast for last night. Maybe Thunderstorms, according to the Lady in Red on the flatscreen. She was taking about local weather in Washington, which we are supposed to believe is something universal, and ‘Maybe’ it is. There are plenty of those in the national forecast, too. The President flew out to California to make an appearance with noted journalist Jimmy Kimmel. That is sort of unusual, since he has not had a one-on-one session with others of the journalism trade. That used to be an honored profession before everything became part of the vast swirl of information that masquerades as what we used call “the news.” The ups-and-downs depend on what narrative is being spun. Just like it is here at The Farm.

That sparked some informal conversation before the usual suspects at the Fire Ring out back convened for the production meeting. Amanda was not quite ready, and still ordering her materials to note any non-respectful conversation about officials or policies that could be construed as violations of Article 88, which could (maybe?) lead to unaffordable overhead legal expenses and put the place we sleep in jeapordy.

Buck started things off to end them before anyone was on the record. “So, the Bureau of Labor Statistics downgraded the U.S. Gross Domestic Product for Q2- the “Second Quarter” to 0.9% growth. That is an indicator the Recession we have been talking about could be here already, since that less-than-1% GDP growth reflects something in progress.”

Then he sighed. “I appear to be the only one who is permitted to keep talking, since I am not subject to that oath you people swore almost 50 years ago. As a trained economist on emeritus status, I am happy to answer any techincal questions you might have before what we say becomes a matter of record.”

“So, is the recession here now?”

“Maybe. Or at least not precisely. We are in a situation where we they are saying Q2 is about the same as Q1. Two Q’s in a row of declining GDP is the standard definition of recessionary times. So, what happens with Q3 will amount to either acknowledging the recession is here, or finagled it away by saying again what they are saying now about Q2. Loading the right statistics can give you results that are actually within the margin of error.”

DeMille looked like he might enforce some discipline in actually starting the meeting, so Splash interjected a few last thoughts before he had to behave himself. “I am going to need my mangoes and kiwis and papayas. They have been talking about food prices doubling by harvest time. What is that going to do to exotic fruit availability?”

Buck pressed his wire-framed glasses back to be well-seated on his apparently once-broken nose. “You have to understand that the alleged news is only providing partial information, depending on desired effect. For example, experts around the world have heard about the effect on global agriculture of the shortage of fertilizer caused by sanctions on Russia. All of us learned something during the Arab Spring back in 2010. Some countries are always on the margins of food supply. So, there are reports that some grain elevators in the developing world are currently ‘full’ at the moment, preparing for scarcity this fall when a poor harvest could be trouble.”

Melissa is an expert on food acquisition and preparation. She said: “Some countries have already restricted stuff. India banned exports of grain. Indonesia clamped down on cooking oil, which is necessary to cook food even if the food is available.” She frowned on memories of inconvenience.

“Bingo,” said Buck. “Now you are in my territory, which is to look inside what numbers to count to make the predictions. Saying there will be a food problem in America is a general statement that could range from bitching about how much the food costs and looking at an empty shelf.”

“Like the baby formula thing?”

“No, that is just the usual inefficiency we have come to expect from Government-run programs. One agency shuts down a heavily regulated production plant, knowing that restrictions have already limited the number of factories producing formula, and did nothing to ensure the other parts of the Administration knew there would be trouble coming.”

“Just for families with kids. But it is more universal. It is a simple matter of demonstrated government inefficiency from the same bunch of people who are supposed to manage things effectively this Fall, as Q3 comes on.”

“So, that is one view from one expert who is actually here at the Fire Ring. What are the other choices?” asked Loma with a sigh of frustration.

Buck gathered his thoughts. “A general consensus is that there will be be a poor year for food internationally, and some inconvenience here with some shortages and increased expenses. Not starvation.”

“So you are saying we will just keep lurching ahead with a version of a Stagnant Economy and painful inflation? We don’t have a Panama Canal to give away like Mr. Carter did.” Rocket applied his usual Speed-is-Life logic to blowing through the fight rather than lingering to get shot down.

“See? You are using the wrong talking points,” Loma was ready for business. “The new Press Secretary told us this was a historic time in history.”

There were some blank looks around the circle, since a common theme in national messaging strategy is apparently to take a sound bite tested on a reliable sample audience and say those two or three words multiple times in single sentences to convey wise policy choices. Buck tried to sum it up. “That Fox correspondent at the press conference asked the new lady why 83% of the public thinks the US economy is “poor” or “not so good.” She gave it a good go. She said “the U.S. economy is in a better place than it has been historically.”

Conversation lurched suddenly to different radials on the Ring. “That covers a lot of history. Which moment in history was she talking about?”

“See, you walked into the universal response to potential criticism. You are ‘pouncing’ on the new Press Secretary, not asking a question.”

DeMille sighed. There seemed to be a lot of that this morning, we all seem to be in some historical place we were not completely aware of, but if only we could work together, we might actually get some work done if we did it together. We do not want to pounce on it. We understand that jumble of words can leave both ‘questions’ and ‘answers’ in some strange limbo. So, DeMille rose to do the particular limbo of meeting messaging as Amanda raised her finger over the touch screen on the tablet on her lap.

Loma was still concerned with edible issues. “We need our mangoes, kiwis and papayas.”

No one was going to pounce on that one, since we had heard about water shortages that could impact the laundry cycle, much less the emerging detergent crisis. It was useful to think back to what the Administration told us a couple weeks ago to give hope against a potential rising storm: “If we work together, that means we will work together, if we just work together.”

DeMille is taking that as the key message for this morning’s weather report. Maybe we can pounce on working together, you know?

Copyright 2022 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com