Working Backwards

Our Attorney Amanda is the one that started the minor controversy this morning. She normally tries to steer us away from C&C issues, since those are the ones most likely to get us into trouble. “Current and Controversial” is too complicated to say in full, so we go with the abbreviation. It is not intentional, but it is useful.

Loma is probably our best and most recent target planner, so the group deferred to him. He had time as a Bombardier Navigator in the wonderful old A-6 Intruder attack aircraft. As such, he knows how the process goes with success and failure. The former is easy: “We succeeded because of the excellence of our weapons, meticulous planning and superb execution.” The latter is curiously phrased exactly the same except for adding the “…but” phrase.

We normally attempt to keep conversation away from the grotesque details of War. At least before breakfast. This morning it was Amanda who started it out with what she considered a legitimate question. “So, I read yesterday about some of the war crimes that were apparently conducted by the Russians in a town called ‘Buca.’ Then there were reports the Ukrainians had executed some military prisoners. This morning, the media was saying the Russians had conducted a missile strike on a railway station in Kramatorsk, a town in eastern Ukraine. Results were said to be horrific. Media said there were at least thirty civilians killed and hundreds wounded.”

DeMille looked over in mild bemusement. “We normally stay away from C&C this early, but Loma may have some clarification on that matter.”

Loma put on his presentation face and rose to assume a semblance of an upright posture. “First step is the target. What is it, what type of destruction is preferred? Does the commander intend to keep it as a useful piece of infrastructure, or is the intent to deny its use to the enemy? Or is it to make an effect on enemy morale?”

“Do the instructions for the target assignments include that sort of detail? Do they come with intent?” Amanda found it useful to interpret kinetic targeting in a way analogous to that of the legal system, the one on a litigation spectrum that ranges from ‘discouragement’ to ‘imprisonment.’

Loma smiled. “Depends on the scope of the campaign. In the shock-and-awe phase, emphasis might be on the destruction of as many critical targets as possible given the number of delivery systems and weapons that are available. DESERT STORM was like that in the initial phase. Later, a certain amount of precision is required to minimize collateral damage.’ He paused for a moment, looking at Amanda’s frown. “Collateral damage is a useful term for things destroyed without intent. Direct intent, anyway.”

Amanda picked up her steno pad and made a note. “So, are civilian injuries and even deaths termed ‘Collateral Damage?” That seems to be a deliberate means of obscuring what happened. Do the Russians have the capability to be that precise with a missile strike?”

“Sure. But there can be mistakes. With a missile, there is no strike package of air defense suppression, airborne fuel, electronic jamming and stuff. Less possibility for confusion. Plus, you can adjust the timing of the strike to times of the day in which there will be larger or smaller numbers of people at the target.”

“Would that be included in the directive to hit the target?”

“Sometimes. But there was one I will never forget. We had some great intelligence on a target in Baghdad one time. We were told it was a Command and Control node critical to movement of troops and materiel. Schematics for that bunker were provided by someone who had access to the European contractor who built it. We planned the heck out of it, with precision weapons capable of penetrating the buried concrete structure. We briefed the details to the Chairman and the SECDEF. They seemed pleased, and we executed the plan.”

“That seems reasonable, given the inherent complexity of warfare.”

“Yeah. We didn’t find out until the next morning that it had been used not only for command and control, but for the safety of some of the regime leadership families. It was sobering watching the CNN coverage at 0200 Washington time the next day. The al Firdos District Bunker had a lot of collateral damage.”

“Was that a war crime?”

“Not intentionally. At least not by us. But that is part of the nature of uncertainty. Working it backwards, with a train station being used to evacuate civilians, it would seem probable that was the point of the missile attack.”

Buck sat up straight and raised his right hand for emphasis. “There is a tradition of this sort of thing in this place. After he took over leadership of the Soviet Union, Stalin wanted to make a point about the forced collectivization of formerly private farms in Ukraine. He thought bringing wheat farming into a unified five-year plan for agriculture was a desirable thing. The ensuing crop failures in 1932 and ’33 resulted in something the Ukrainians call the ‘Holodomor.’ People who tried to glean some of the grain to take home were shot on the spot. The famine killed more than three million people, almost all of them civilians.”

“Did he really want to kill millions just to put the farms together? That is something we could call genocide today.”

“True. But the nature of warfare includes the ability to call it something else, too. Collateral damage.”

Amanda closed her notebook after underlining something. “I suppose that means the chance of a negotiated peace to end the invasion is a little less likely. Maybe we ought to find something more ironic or historical for the piece this morning.”

“The Holodomor is historic enough. And it is ironic that it was directed to happen in the interest of a greater good.”

“There seems to be a lot of that going around these days,” said Splash. “The nature of war carries a fair amount of baggage. Some of it is bound to be collateral.”

The morning sunlight was brilliant after gray days of rain. There was a hint of warmth in the gentle southern breeze. There was life in it. DeMille looked at Amanda to see if there was any legal counsel regarding events overseas. She frowned. “Let’s try to find something about Peace, shall we?”

The circle around the Fire Ring nodded almost in unison. The problem is that in this circumstance, truth was one of the first casualties ofScreen Shot 2022-04-08 at 11.07.46 AM.png
war. And as has become routine, it did not appear to be collateral.

Copyright 2022 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com

Written by Vic Socotra